Best Picture (ranked from most likely to least likely):
Toy Story 3
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network
Inception
The King's Speech
(Tier one above, tier two below)
The Fighter
Black Swan
Love and Other Drugs
Never Let Me Go
Somewhere
We know Toy Story 3 is in if they let Up in last year. Inception I have reservations about, if only because better films may come along, but it definitely captured the zeitgeist this summer, and it is Christopher Nolan's "time." The Academy felt so bad about The Dark Knight snub that they made the field ten-wide. They aren't ignoring Nolan again. The Kids Are All Right has probably had "front-runner" status for awhile (live-action films category) and I don't see any reason why it would lose its heat. The Social Network has gotten very positive early buzz, and its director (David Fincher) has been quite the news item because of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo business. He's safe. The King's Speech is the definition of Oscar bait. Royals, Geoffrey Rush, a true story, and royals. Lots of royals. I've only heard positive things, so I think it can pull off a nomination in a ten-wide field (I mean, An Education did last year and that was certainly less bait-y.)
The Fighter depends on the reviews. With good/great reviews, then the topic (boxer! inspirational!) it's in. Black Swan is probably the most potentially polarizing film on this list, but with ardent supporters (which it seems to have, are they Academy members?) it could break through. Love and Other Drugs feels like that Chocolat nom. waiting to happen. Except Chocolat was in the top 5, so why can't Love and Other Drugs be in the top 10? Never Let Me Go is the film I actually might have the least faith in for Oscar love, but Somewhere also seems iffy, but for different reasons. I give Never Let Me Go the edge because of the cast and that haunting trailer.Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David Fincher, The Social Network
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Nolan has the whole "it's his time," as does Aronofsky. Nolan is probably the safer bet because his film has been released, grossed close to $700 million, and permeated pop culture. Black Swan probably won't come anywhere near $700 million (ah, in a perfect world!), but Darren Aronofsky can't be denied this many times.. can he? David Fincher seems to be a no-brainer, but Mike Leigh and David O. Russell are more long shots. Mike Leigh has pulled off this feat before (Vera Drake) where he gets nominated but his film doesn't, and given the warm reception Another Year has received, he might be safer than the film itself. And David O. Russell soars or sinks based on the reviews of The Fighter. Positive, he's probably in, negative, he's probably out.
More predictions in the coming days. What are your thoughts on my predictions so far?
