Oscars Oscars Oscars

The Oscars seem to be on everybody's minds, from Luke at www.lukecurtis.blogspot.com to Nathaniel at www.filmexperience.blogspot.com. I thought I'd offer my two cents in more than just comment form for who I predict being nominated. These early predictions (no precursors!) are fun. Some may come true, most probably won't. That's the best thing about the pre-precursor season: nothing is set in stone. So be prepared for a lot of text and, without further ado, here they are:

Best Picture (ranked from most likely to least likely):
Toy Story 3
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network
Inception
The King's Speech
(Tier one above, tier two below)
The Fighter
Black Swan
Love and Other Drugs
Never Let Me Go
Somewhere

We know Toy Story 3 is in if they let Up in last year. Inception I have reservations about, if only because better films may come along, but it definitely captured the zeitgeist this summer, and it is Christopher Nolan's "time." The Academy felt so bad about The Dark Knight snub that they made the field ten-wide. They aren't ignoring Nolan again. The Kids Are All Right has probably had "front-runner" status for awhile (live-action films category) and I don't see any reason why it would lose its heat. The Social Network has gotten very positive early buzz, and its director (David Fincher) has been quite the news item because of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo business. He's safe. The King's Speech is the definition of Oscar bait. Royals, Geoffrey Rush, a true story, and royals. Lots of royals. I've only heard positive things, so I think it can pull off a nomination in a ten-wide field (I mean, An Education did last year and that was certainly less bait-y.)
The Fighter depends on the reviews. With good/great reviews, then the topic (boxer! inspirational!) it's in. Black Swan is probably the most potentially polarizing film on this list, but with ardent supporters (which it seems to have, are they Academy members?) it could break through. Love and Other Drugs feels like that Chocolat nom. waiting to happen. Except Chocolat was in the top 5, so why can't Love and Other Drugs be in the top 10? Never Let Me Go is the film I actually might have the least faith in for Oscar love, but Somewhere also seems iffy, but for different reasons. I give Never Let Me Go the edge because of the cast and that haunting trailer.

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David Fincher, The Social Network
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Nolan has the whole "it's his time," as does Aronofsky. Nolan is probably the safer bet because his film has been released, grossed close to $700 million, and permeated pop culture. Black Swan probably won't come anywhere near $700 million (ah, in a perfect world!), but Darren Aronofsky can't be denied this many times.. can he? David Fincher seems to be a no-brainer, but Mike Leigh and David O. Russell are more long shots. Mike Leigh has pulled off this feat before (Vera Drake) where he gets nominated but his film doesn't, and given the warm reception Another Year has received, he might be safer than the film itself. And David O. Russell soars or sinks based on the reviews of The Fighter. Positive, he's probably in, negative, he's probably out.

More predictions in the coming days. What are your thoughts on my predictions so far?

Emmy Predictions

The Emmys are upon us! Well, the nominations, and I'm here to offer up some predictions for those nominations.

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Drama
Naveen Andrews, Lost
Michael Emerson, Lost
Terry O'Quinn, Lost
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Martin Short, Damages
John Slattery, Mad Men

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Drama
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Rose Byrne, Damages
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Chloe Sevigny, Big Love
Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Comedy
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Tracy Morgan, 30 Rock
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Rainn Wilson, The Office

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Comedy
Cheryl Hines, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Jane Lynch, Glee
Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Lead Actor - Drama
Simon Baker, The Mentalist
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Ray Romano, Men of a Certain Age

Outstanding Lead Actress - Drama
Glenn Close, Damages
Mariska Harigtay, Law and Order: Special Victims Unit
Holly Hunter, Saving Grace
Sally Field, Brothers and Sisters
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Outstanding Lead Actor - Comedy
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Steve Carell, The Office
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men

Outstanding Lead Actress - Comedy
Toni Collette, The United States of Tara
Courteney Cox, Cougar Town
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Mary Louise Parker, Weeds

Outstanding Drama Series
Mad Men
Breaking Bad
True Blood
House
Lost
Dexter
The Good Wife

Outstanding Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Office
Glee
Modern Family
The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
How I Met Your Mother

Oscar Predictions

My first Oscar Predictions on my blog! Here goes nothing!

Best Picture
The Hurt Locker

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique

Best Original Screenplay
Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay
Up in the Air

Best Animated Feature
Up

Best Foreign Language Feature
El Secreto de Sus Ojos

Best Documentary Feature
The Cove

Best Documentary Short
Rabbit a la Berlin

Best Live Action Short
Kavi

Best Animated Short
The Lady and the Reaper

Best Original Score
Up

Best Original Song
"The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart

Best Sound Editing
Avatar

Best Sound Mixing
The Hurt Locker

Best Art Direction
Avatar

Best Cinematography
Avatar

Best Makeup
Star Trek

Best Costume Design
The Young Victoria

Best Film Editing
The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects
Avatar

Golden Globe Predictions

Really quickly, here are my Golden Globe guesses (love me some alliteration!):

Film:
Best Picture (D) - Up in the Air
Best Picture (M/C) -(500) Days of Summer

Actor (D) - Jeff Bridges
Actor (M/C) - Daniel Day-Lewis

Actress (D) - Carey Mulligan
Actress (M/C) - Meryl Streep

Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz
Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique (please let Anna Kendrick win here!)

Director - James Cameron
Screenplay - Inglourious Basterds

Original Score - Up
Original Song - "The Weary Kind"

Animated Feature - Up
Foreign Language Film - The White Ribbon

TV:
Drama Series - Mad Men
Comedy Series - Glee

Actor (D) - Hugh Laurie
Actor (M/C) - Alec Baldwin

Actress (D) - Julianna Margulies
Actress (M/C) - Courteney Cox

Miniseries/TV film - Grey Gardens

Actor (Miniseries/Tv film) - Brendan Gleeson
Actress (Miniseries/Tv film) - Drew Barrymore

Supporting Actor (Miniseries/Tv film) - John Lithgow
Supporting Actress (Miniseries/Tv film) - Jane Lynch

Golden Globe Predictions

Two Golden Globes at once!? These predictions can't see that happening two years in a row...

Best Motion Picture - Drama
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Up in the Air

I'm sticking with these. Invictus seems to be their ticket to a historical prestige pic, and Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds have the stars that the Golden Globes love to have come to their ceremony. Precious and The Hurt Locker seem to be the critical darlings that they will love to honor. I don't think The Last Station will make it, and Avatar has just started screening, so I can't imagine it making it here.

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy
(500) Days of Summer
In the Loop
Julie & Julia
Nine
A Serious Man

Either Sherlock Holmes, It's Complicated, or The Proposal could sneak in here. But if Happy-Go-Lucky could sneak in then why can't In the Loop? Otherwise, I'm fairly confident here. Look for Nine to win come January.

Best Actress - Drama
Sandra Bullock- The Blind Side
Abbie Cornish- Bright Star
Helen Mirren- The Last Station
Carey Mulligan- An Education
Gabourey Sidibe- Precious

These acting categories is where I expect The Last Station to pick up its nods. Hilary Swank could get in here, but I don't think so given the general hate for Amelia. I'm hoping that Cornish gets recognized here. If not, it's probably the beginning of the end for her and Bright Star.

Best Actor - Drama
Jeff Bridges- Crazy Heart
George Clooney- Up in the Air
Johnny Depp- Public Enemies
Colin Firth- A Single Man
Morgan Freeman- Invictus

Yes, the Globes certainly do have a thing for Johnny Depp. He has eight nominations and a big biopic out this year should raise that tally to nine. Jeremy Renner is a close sixth, but I can't see him breaking in here. The only other upset I can think of is Viggo Mortensen for The Road.

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy
Marion Cotillard- Nine
Zooey Deschanel- (500) Days of Summer
Michelle Pfeiffer- Cheri
Meryl Streep- It's Complicated
Meryl Streep- Julie & Julia

A double nod for Streep seems to be the surest thing since Slumdog Millionaire winning Best Picture earlier this year. Pfeiffer seems to be an iffy choice, but I'm confident she can land a nod. Who else is there? Sure, she's been losing steam, but people haven't forgotten. (Or have they?)

Best Actor- Musical/Comedy
Matt Damon- The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis- Nine
Robert Downey Jr.- Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon Levitt- (500) Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg- A Serious Man
The only one who isn't a sure lock is Stuhlbarg. Bradley Cooper could get in there, or Alec Baldwin should the Globes promote him to a leading category. But I don't really think that The Hangover guys can get in here.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz- Nine
Vera Farmiga- Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick- Up in the Air
Mo'Nique- Precious
Julianne Moore- A Single Man

This will probably be one of the few times Vera Farmiga gets any attention this awards season. Sorry to the other Nine ladies, but this is category is pretty packed. It'd be tough to break through.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon- Invictus
Woody Harrelson- The Messenger
Jude Law- Sherlock Holmes
Christopher Plummer- The Last Station
Christoph Waltz- Inglourious Basterds

This one's tricky. Alfred Molina looked like he was definitely headed to Oscar, and he still could be, but the Globes might not go for him. Jude Law probably has you shaking your head, but the Globes love big stars and the supporting category is where they choose to honor stars for triumphant comebacks in supporting roles (Ben Affleck for Hollywoodland, John Travolta in Hairspray, or Tom Cruise in Tropic Thunder). As you can see, it also helps if your in a funny movie, which Sherlock Holmes just happens to be.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow
Clint Eastwood
Rob Marshall
Jason Reitman
Quentin Tarantino

Sorry James Cameron, but I just don't see Avatar getting major nominations until later in the awards season. This is exactly why December shouldn't be the go-to month for release for Oscar-hopefuls. Lee Daniels or Nora Ephron have a very, very slight chance of getting nominated here if you ask me, but they don't seem like they can beat this stiff competition.

Best Supporting Actress

Having revisted the trailer for The Lovely Bones, I've been inspired to look at this year's Best Supporting Actress hopefuls...Here I will list who I want to be nominated.

Want to be Nominated (This is without having seen any of the films, but based on trailers, buzz, and the occassional favorite actress)

Julianne Moore for A Single Man - The trailer is genius and buzz has been strong. I know Mo'Nique seems to be the most-hyped actress this side of Nine, but Moore is consistently terrific and, from the trailer alone, I'm reminded of Moore's beautifully underappreciated (awards wise at least) work in Boogie Nights. Fingers crossed Moore, I'm sure more than just me want you to get nominated!

Penélope Cruz for Nine - Penélope should have two Oscars at this point, for Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Volver. The latter didn't come through, but at least she has one. Her work has become better with each new release and, taking the sexy, Tony award role from Jane Krakowski, I don't see how there can be any wrong. Also, Rob Marshall directs, and he knows his women.

Nicole Kidman for Nine - She'll probably be campaigned for lead actress, but with the ever-annoying Marion Cotillard hogging up the spotlight, I hope she'll be moved to supporting. Nicole's last musical was Moulin Rouge!, and if her work here is half as good, she'll deserve the nomination. I also love when big stars do go down to supporting performances. It's not always about being the lead ladies (See: Catherine Zeta Jones in Chicago, which definitely could have been a co-lead).

Susan Sarandon for The Lovely Bones - Based on the trailer, Susan Sarandon seems her most Sarandon-y in years, no offense Speed Racer. It's hard to come by good parts when you're an actress over 40 in Hollywood, so this could be the comeback Sarandon needs. Hopefully audience affection will lean to her character, and enough momentum will build to beat that late release date in December (and even later wider release in January) to get Sarandon back to the Kodak since her win for Dead Man Walking back in 1995. It's time for a Sarandonssaince. Let's hope The Lovely Bones isn't killed by the late release date like Revolutionary Road was.

Sigourney Weaver for Avatar - James Cameron's first film since Titanic looks... interesting. At first I was anticipating it like no other, as mentioned in some earlier post where I tried to predict the Best Picture nominees, but now the interest in the special-effects bonanza has been fading. It's looking a bit video-gameish. However, my interest in Sigourney's part has been growing. She's great in everything, but I have a feeling that Avatar is going to be almost completely ignored in every category that doesn't deal with tech. I've barely even seen clips of her, but from what I can remember, it's traditional Sigourney, not so showy (The Ice Storm) but oh so good.

So fantasies aside, here's who will probably be nominated...
Mo'Nique for Precious
Julianne Moore for A Single Man
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air (why can't I get excited over this?)
Penélope Cruz for Nine
Mélanie Laurent for Inglourious Basterds

So, what do you think? Who do you want to be nominated? Who do you think will be nominated?

EMMY's

Emmy predictions come out tomorrow! It's nice to have nominations announced in July to get through the rut following the Oscars. The only wrong the Emmys can do in my eyes is to ignore Drew Barrymore and Jessica Lange in Grey Gardens. It would be nice to see Jennifer Aniston get a nomination for her work on 30 Rock, but not very likely. Guest actor/actress categories are typically dominated by older actors (i.e. Cloris Leachman for Malcolm in the Middle), but they could throw her a bone, don't you think? I'd like her to join Lisa Kudrow and Matthew Perry by getting an Emmy nomination after their (amazing) work on Friends, the best sitcom in the last 50 years. Any opinions? Please share in the comments section!